China to cautiously watch Ishiba’s steering of Sino-Japanese ties

VIENTIANE (Kyodo) — Despite Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s reaffirmation with Chinese Premier Li Qiang on Thursday in Laos of the need to promote “mutually beneficial” ties, Beijing is likely to keep a close eye on how the new leader handles relations following a general election later this month.

In his first talks with Li, Ishiba, who took office on Oct. 1, confirmed in the meeting on the sidelines of regional summits in Vientiane that the two Asian neighbors share the goal of stabilizing ties strained over a host of issues, including the fatal stabbing of a Japanese schoolboy in China last month.

The bilateral relationship has also been marred by the first-ever intrusion by a Chinese military plane into Japanese airspace in August and Beijing’s detention of Japanese nationals over espionage allegations among other issues.

Chinese experts have expressed wariness over Ishiba, a defense expert who met with Taiwan leader Lai Ching-te in August with other Japanese lawmakers and has proposed creating a NATO-style alliance in Asia. Beijing regards the self-ruled island as part of its territory and condemns Lai as a separatist.

Da Zhigang, director of the Institute of Northeast Asian Studies at Heilongjiang Provincial Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times, a tabloid affiliated with China’s ruling Communist Party, late last month that Beijing needs to “stay alert” with regard to Ishiba.

“Ishiba should properly manage Japan’s relations with the United States, China and other neighboring countries. It is important to enhance the flexibility of policies (and) actively create opportunities for communication” to maintain “healthy and stable” Sino-Japanese ties, Da said.

Xiang Haoyu, a research fellow at the China Institute of International Studies, was quoted by the Global Times as saying he expects that Japan’s policy of seeking to align with the United States and use the issue of Taiwan “to contain China” will “not undergo significant adjustments” under Ishiba.

But Xiang said that although Ishiba is considered a conservative, his policies are “more balanced and moderate” than those of hawkish ruling lawmakers in Japan and called on him to engage in defense dialogue with China to “build trust and dispel doubts.”

Ko Maeda, associate professor at the University of North Texas, said Ishiba appears set to maintain his predecessor Fumio Kishida’s approach to Sino-Japanese relations, as he has upheld key phrases such as seeking a “mutually beneficial relationship based on common strategic interests” and “constructive and stable” ties.

Maeda also said electoral calculations will likely influence Ishiba’s China policy as he will face a House of Councillors poll in the summer of 2025 after the Oct. 27 general election.

Stephen Nagy, a professor at International Christian University in Tokyo, said that Ishiba “doesn’t have so much freedom to fundamentally change” much about Sino-Japanese relations, in light of relatively strong economic ties between the two Asian neighbors.

“These economic ties mean that an over-securitized approach to Beijing by an Ishiba administration would harm Japan,” Nagy said, adding that he expects “much more continuity” in bilateral relations to “maximize the economic benefits Tokyo can receive.”

He also warned the new Japanese leader’s call for creating an Asian-style NATO collective security arrangement amid rising cross-strait tensions could be “weaponized” by Beijing.

China might claim Japan is “unrepentant” about its wartime past and “working hand in glove” with the United States to contain Beijing based on a Cold War mentality, Nagy said.

Naoko Eto, a professor of political science at Gakushuin University and Japan-China relations expert, said Beijing is likely to closely monitor whether Ishiba’s eagerness to make the Japan-U.S. security alliance more equal will have any impact on Tokyo-Washington ties.

Specifically, Ishiba has called for reviewing Tokyo’s agreement with Washington on the status of U.S. troops stationed in Japan.

China will monitor whether any gap emerges in Japan-U.S. relations as Beijing is always on the lookout for distance being generated between the two security allies, she said.

Eto also said Ishiba’s appointment of security experts to key posts in his Cabinet and ruling Liberal Democratic Party indicates that he intends to continue boosting Japan’s deterrence capabilities, a prospect that causes alarm in China.

Former defense ministers Takeshi Iwaya and Gen Nakatani are serving as foreign and defense chiefs, while Itsunori Onodera, who also held the portfolio, heads the LDP Policy Research Council.

The Gakushuin University professor said she believes Sino-Japanese relations have been deteriorating due partly to internal factors in China, with weakening governance under the ideology-oriented leadership of President Xi Jinping.

“China does not intend to actively worsen its relationship with Japan, but as it cannot handle (contentious) issues well, bilateral ties cool as a result,” she said.

Citing the incursion into Japanese airspace, Eto said it was viewed by the Chinese military simply as a “reasonable action” to collect data. Tokyo, however, interpreted it as a possible attempt to test its reaction.

“I have an impression that each section (of the Chinese state), be it the military or public security authorities, takes what it views as reasonable actions that are not properly overseen” by the country’s government, the professor said.

Following the boy’s killing in the southern Chinese city of Shenzhen, Tokyo repeatedly asked Beijing to ensure the safety of Japanese nationals in China, clarify the facts of the case, including the suspect’s motive, and tighten controls over abusive social media posts targeting its neighbor.

But China has shown no intention of providing information on the attacker’s motive and the background to the case. Regarding social media comments, Eto said Beijing has been slow to delete hateful posts as they help vent public frustration amid a downturn in the Chinese economy.

“The best solution would be for the (Chinese) government to call on the public to protect foreign nationals, but at present, it fails to take action and tacitly approves” potentially xenophobic sentiments, she pointed out.

(By Maya Kaneko)